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A DSGE Model with Financial Dollarization: the Case of Serbia
Djukić, Mirko ; Hlédik, Tibor ; Polanský, Jiří ; Trajčev, Ljubica ; Vlček, Jan
We amend a DSGE model of a small open economy by adding financial euroization in order to capture the main channels of the monetary transmission mechanism in match the Serbian data. In contrast to the standard DSGE workhorse, the model encompasses commercial banks and foreign-exchange-denominated deposits and loans. Given these features, the model is well suited to evaluating effects of the nominal exchange rate on the financial wealth and consumption of households. The model structure, including optimization problems and first-order conditions, is provided in the paper. The model properties are tested to match the stylized facts of dollarized economies. Specifically, the model is calibrated to the Serbian data, and a model-consistent multivariate filter is used to identify unobserved trends and gaps.
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Economic Research Bulletin (2013, No.2). No. 2, Vol. 11, November 2013, Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy
Česká národní banka
This edition of the Research Bulletin focuses on four articles which analyse the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The first article examines the interactions between monetary and fiscal policies in six industrialised countries during 1980–2008. Employing a novel empirical framework, the article documents changes in monetary-fiscal interactions over time. Next, these changes are linked to the monetary policy regime set-up. The second article assesses the extent to which fiscal discretion in the Czech Republic contributed to smoothing the real economy over the business cycle in the past decade. Using several alternative approaches, the results suggest that fiscal discretionary measures have been procyclical, that is, have amplified business cycle fluctuations. The third article analyses in an empirical framework how unexpected changes to government spending and revenues affect the Czech economy. The article detects certain regularities and at the same time shows the limits of the existing identification methods when applied to short Czech fiscal data. The fourth article takes a complementary approach by building a dynamic stochastic general equilib rium (DSGE) model to quantify the effects of fiscal measures on the expenditure and revenue sides of the Czech economy. The model, which is still rather in the development stage, demonstrates the potential for calculating fiscal multipliers and simulating the macroeconomic effects of fiscal measures for individual categories of the government budget.
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Issues in adopting DSGE models for use in the policy process
Fukač, Martin ; Pagan, Adrian
This discussion is structured by three concerns – model design, matching the data and operational requirements. The paper begins with a general discussion of the structure of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models where writers investigate issues like (i) the type of restrictions being imposed by DSGE models upon system dynamics, (ii) the implication these models would have for "location parameters", viz. growth rates, and (iii) whether these models can track the long-run movements in variables as well as matching dynamic adjustment.
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Small DSGE model for open economy
Katreniaková, Dagmara ; Štěpánek, Pavel (advisor) ; Halás, Vladimír (referee)
Práce se zabývá malým DSGE modelem (model čtvrté generace) v prostředí české a slovenské ekonomiky. Jádro analytické části tvoří srovnání odhadnutého a optimálního pravidla a zároveň jejich porovnání s reálnými výstupy. Cílem je poukázat na efektivnost centrální banky při stabilizaci variability inflace a výstupu ekonomiky. Teoretická část poskytuje znalosti usnadňující pochopení souvislostí tohoto modelu a zároveň nás obeznámí s modely, které v dnešní době využívá Česká národní banka a Národná banka Slovenska.
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